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Is Facebook set to be a victim of the “mobile” generation?

The news of Facebook’s drop in user figures certainly came as a shock to us at The Practice. With a loss of 6 million users in the US and 1.4 million in the UK during the first quarter, we wonder why, and consider: does this mark the beginning of Facebook’s demise?

Analysis provider SocialBakers also reported a decline in other countries including Japan, France, Spain, Germany and Canada, while researchers tracking Facebook usage discovered a 20 million-strong drop in figures during February. The Practice team feel that rising numbers of alternative or more engaging social media platforms could have been instrumental to Facebook’s latest drop. Aside from suspects such as Instagram, social network, Path, for example, offers similar features for the mobile generation. Path, founded by former Facebook employee Dave Morin, offers a smart phone-based social site which restricts users to 150 friends- and it’s already gaining around one million new users per week following a recent surge in popularity. What’s interesting is that although the platform was launched in November 2010, it’s only experienced a recent rise in notoriety, perhaps due to users seeking out a more exclusive and private space to interact on.

Furthermore, the growth in smart phone usage has meant a surge in app popularity, particularly from the younger generation. But in this case then, where does Facebook Home come into play? Mark Zuckerberg’s latest initiative has seen the inclusion of this downloadable, Android-compatible software that generates friends’ news, photos and targeted adverts to the user’s home screen. It’s a step in the right direction in lieu of potentially threatening competitors, yet already, Android users have reported flaws in performance compared to other launchers. Secondly, it’s important to take into account that Facebook’s decreased figures also include those logging on from smart phones and tablets- perhaps this shows that embracing mobile isn’t enough to gain back or halt declining visitor numbers?

And is it fair to say that Facebook’s novelty value has worn off? Ian Maude, new media specialist at Enders Analysis argues: “The problem is that, in the US and UK, most people who want to sign up for Facebook have already done it.” He added: “There is a boredom factor where people like to try something new. Is Facebook going to go the way of Myspace? The risk is relatively small, but that is not to say it isn’t there.” We at The Practice don’t agree that Facebook is likely to follow Myspace’s “boom and bust” phenomenon. After all, it was Facebook’s rise back in 2008 that was the contributing factor to Myspace’s fall, and with no impending competitor likely to overtake, we think Facebook is in a strong enough position to withstand any ups and downs. Moreover, while drops are endemic of problems to come, they’ve largely been seen from developed nations, while statistics for developing markets have shown a 6 per cent and 4 per cent rise in Brazil and India respectively over the last month, with further growth predicted.

While Facebook will most likely bounce back from the blow, have you grown disillusioned with it? And can you foresee a similar platform such as Path continue to grow in popularity? We’d love to hear your thoughts, so please tweet to us @PracticeDigital and comment via our Facebook page.